UFC 162 Silva vs Weidman results and recap: WTF

It’s probably best I didn;t write this post until now, because it took me so long to process what happened in Las Vegas on Saturday night. A fantastic fight card was capped with one of the most shocking and disappointing outcomes in combat sports history.

UFC middleweight championship – Chris Weidman def. Anderson Silva via TKO (punches) – Round 2, 1:18 

First of all, this wasn;t a fix, Anderson Silva didn’t want to lose and the UFC certainly didn’t want Anderson Silva to lose.

What happened was Anderson got a bit too cocky against a phenomenal fighter, and ended up eating a fistful of leather as a result. Just like that, years  of success ended.

I think Silva could have won this fight at almost any time he wanted. The problem was, for as much success as he had slipping most of Weidman;s punches, he was not countering with any of his own.

Once he got up from the takedown in the first round he never looked in too much danger, and I had expected him to explode on his opponent in much the same way as he did against Belfort, Sonnen, Franklin and the rest.

To Weidman’s credit, he kept cool, landed a devastating shot when he was given the opportunity and followed up the knockdown with a guided missile of a punch that put the lights out on the longest title reign in UFC history.

Anderson says he doesn’t want a rematch. I will be staggered if Dana White can’t persuade him to fight Weidman next Superbowl weekend. The PPV buy rate will be unbelievable, and a win for Silva could even enhance his legacy.

I’ll be waiting with bated breath.

Frankie Edgar def. Charles Oliveira via unanimous decision (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)

This was one of the more competitive 30-27 decisions you’re likely to see, and one where the reputation of the loser may have even been enhanced even more than the winner.

Frankie Edgar confirmed what everyone knew. He’s a top class fighter, he can strike, he can wrestle, he can sure as hell scramble and his work rate is about as high as you can get. Actually, that’s selling him short. Edgar’s boxing was outstanding on Saturday. The footwork he displayed to move inside and land punches was first class.

He got tagged a few times, but he hit back with even more blows, and came so close to finishing Oliveira in the third with some heavy, heavy blows.

To his credit, the Brazilian still threatened with his grappling on a regular basis, absorbed those shots and even hit the former lightweight champ with a few of his own.

Edgar still couldn’t get the finish he wanted, but I’d wager 99 per cent of the featherweight division would not have done in that fight.

It was great, back and forth, relentless and fully deserving of fight of the night honours.

Tim Kennedy def. Roger Gracie via unanimous decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)

It all started so well for Roger Gracie. He got back mount in the first round, and looked to be in an excellent position to threaten with submissions. However, Tim Kennedy is apparently very underrated on the ground, and kept his cool.

From then, Gracie was out of gas and Kennedy had too much to offer wherever the fight went. He could keep his distance with kicks and a good jab on the feet, and he was more than capable of shrugging off takedown attempts or even gaining dominant positions on the ground if he wanted.

Kennedy is no world beater, but he’ll give any man at 185lbs a fight, and take care of most outside the top ten.

Mark Munoz def. Tim Boetsch via unanimous decision (30-26, 30-27, 29-28)

Mark Munoz looked great shrugging off all the doubts after his loss to Chris Weidman last year.

His striking looked dangerous, his grappling gave him complete control and his ground and pound looked absolutely deadly.

Boetsch didn’t have an answer, and will have to take his place back in the middle of the middleweight pack.

Munoz is a world away from title contention, but wins against the likes of Bisping, Rockhold or Belfort could start to launch him back to the top. If he continues like this he’ll deserve his top ranking this time too.

Cub Swanson def. Dennis Siver via TKO (punches) – Round 3, 2:24

Cub Swanson is creeping ever closer to that #1 spot at 145lbs.

He did not run over Dennis Siver by any means, who was competitive at first, but he stayed active with a high work rate until the last rounds, and decisively stopped the German with a barrage of punches.

He’s going to have to shrug off that loss to Ricardo Lamas and convince everyone that he can forget about that José Aldo double knee, but there coud be a title shot in his future.

Prelim results

Highlights included:

Gabriel Gonzaga flattening Dave Herman and removing him from the UFC roster.

Edson Barboza’s brutal leg kicks, that frankly became difficult to watch.

Lowlights included Chris Leben’s putrescent performance, and an even worse showing from the judge that gave him the fight. I love Leben. He’s provided great entertainment and some of my favourite KOs over the years, but he’s just not a UFC calibre fighter any more.

Andrew Craig def. Chris Leben via split decision (29-28, 28-29, 30-27)
Norman Parke def. Kazuki Tokudome via unanimous decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
Gabriel Gonzaga def. Dave Herman via TKO (punches) – Round 1, 0:17
Edson Barboza def. Rafaello Oliveira via KO (leg kicks) – Round 2, 1:44
Brian Melancon def. Seth Baczynski via knockout (punches) – Round 1, 4:59
Mike Pierce def. David Mitchell via TKO (punches) – Round 2, 2:55

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Dana White UFC 162 Post-Fight Scrum

In which reporters try to fathom the unthinkable.

Plus: Nick Diaz, Stephan Bonnar, rankings and more.

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UFC 162 Post-fight Press Conference

In which we tried to accept the unthinkable.

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UFC 162 Weigh in video and results

Main Card

Anderson Silva (184) vs. Chris Weidman (185) – for middleweight title
Frankie Edgar (146) vs. Charles Oliveira (144)
Roger Gracie (186) vs. Tim Kennedy (186)
Tim Boetsch (186) vs. Mark Munoz (185)
Dennis Siver (145) vs. Cub Swanson (144)

Prelims

Andrew Craig (186) vs. Chris Leben (186)
Norman Parke (156) vs. Kazuki Tokudome (155)
Gabriel Gonzaga (262) vs. Dave Herman (242)
Edson Barboza (155) vs. Rafaello Oliveira (155)
Seth Baczynski (170) vs. Brian Melancon (170)
David Mitchell (171) vs. Mike Pierce (171)

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UFC 162 Silva vs. Weidman preview

The year’s most hotly anticipated fight is upon us.

Anderson Silva is fighting, something awesome is going to happen.

As a bonus, the main card that support this headlining fight promises thrills galore from some top-ranked fighters in some intriguing matches.

UFC middleweight title: Anderson Silva vs. Chris Weidman 

Every Anderson Silva fight from here on out should be treated as a special occcasion because we really don’t know how long he’ll be able to continue to thrill us with his peeerless athletic gifts. The prospect of this particular fight should be should be regarded with a particularly high level of reverance because of the calibre of opponent.

The calibre of this opponent is so high in fact, that many people are actually predicting Anderson Silva will lose. I am not.

Before we get onto the match of styles, consider this. Chris Weidman is 9-0 in ihs career, with his biggest win against a guy who was battling depression. Anderson Silva is 16-0 in the UFC alone, with victories in 11 title fights. That’s quite a difference in experience before you take into acccount Anderson Silva’s unfathomable ability to avoid offfence and knock people out in extraordinary ways.

It’s not out of the question that Weidman can win, but a fully fit Silva with 25 minutes to land that lethal blow should win this fight, and derail the Weidman hype for a little while.

Frankie Edgar vs. Charles Oliveira

This is a fun fight to re-introduce Edgar into the world of non-title fights.

Oliveira has a dynamic arsenal of attacks, including a sumbission game where he uses his long, slender frame to tie opponents in knots. That’s his best asset, but his muy thai is not bad either, and perfectly servicable against the mjority of the 145lb population.

However, Frankie Edgar does not fit in withg that group, and for my money is still one of the top two lightweights in the world, after catching two unfortunate decisions against Ben Henderson.

HIs work-rate will be higher than ‘Do Bronx’, his footwork will be able to get him into boxing range and out again without taking too mauch damage, and it’s highly likely that his wrestling ability will allow him to avoid the takedown and stay out of submission danger.

I fancy Edgar by  TKO.

Roger Gracie vs. Tim Kennedy

This is an interesting one, as there’s always a question mark about world-class BJJ{ artists in MMA, particularly Gracies.

Roger Gracies game looks to be getting to a point where he will be can be competetive with good middleweights on the feet. Well, ompete enough so he can set up the takedown and impose his suffocating submission game.

But does Kennedy rise above the level of the likes of Keith Jardine, and pssess the antidote to this grappling poison? I’d have to say yes.

Kennedy is a very good, complete mixed martial artist, and durable as hell. Look no further than his wars against former Strikeforce champs Luke Rockhold and Jacaré, which went the distance.

Kennedy by TKO.

Tim Boetsch vs. Mark Munoz

I fear this could be a bit of a ssnoozer.

I hope I’m wrong, but the last time Tim Boetsch faced a heavy hitting expert grappler (Hector Lombard) we all had to endure one of the worst fights on a UFC PPV main card in recent memory.

With that said, we still have some potential for fireworks. Both me do hit hard, and the optimistic part of my brain tells me these guys are both coming off losses an will have something to prove, so will be looking for a finish. If that is the case and we see some swinging for the fences, I think Boetsch is the more durable fighter, so I’d have to pick him.

Dennis Siver vs. Cub Swanson

Another tricky one. Both men hit very hard and strike agressively.

In addition, Swanson has some underrated grappling, while Siver packs a dangerous arsenal of kicks and a much improved top game. This fight has fight of the night written all over it, and I’m really on the fence about it.

I’d just sit back and assume we’re in for a war rather than worrying about who will actually win.

Prelims

Not too mucyh to lose your mind over here, but it will be interesting to see if Chris Leben can drag himself out of the current funk he is in and get back on the winning track.

I’d also imagine Edson Barboza will be crushing Rafaello Oliveira in spectacularly violent fashion, and the Gonzaga/Herman fight will end with something silly.

Andrew Craig vs. Chris Leben
Norman Parke vs. Kazuki Tokudome
Gabriel Gonzaga vs. Dave Herman
Edson Barboza vs. Rafaello Oliveira
Seth Baczynski vs. Brian Melancon
David Mitchell vs. Mike Pierce

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UFC on FOX 4 Results – Shogun stops Vera, Machida earns title shot

Shogun and Brandon Vera engage during their 4 round war…

… while Lyoto Machida stands over Ryan Bader after knocking him unconscious

As its’ been a couple of days since this event I’ll just give a few brief thoughts on a fantastic evening of combat from Los Angeles. There was not a single fight on the card that disappointed.

Mauricio Rua def. Brandon Vera via TKO at 4:09 of Round 4.

After being counted out by almost everyone, Brandon Vera put on one of the performances of his career to take Mauricio ‘Shogun’ Rua into the deep waters of the 4th round, but it still wasn’t enough to best the former UFC champion. shogun looked dangerous early on, and one couldn’t help but think that the Shogun of a few years ago would have had ‘The Truth’ out of there within 2 rounds after he connected with several good punches.

Vera battled back in the 2nd and into the 3rd, keeping Shogun on his back, as well as landing to some crisp combinations beginning with some clean straight punches followed up by some nasty leg kicks. Both fighters were exhausted well before the 4th round, leading many observers to criticise their condition. While it is true that these guys may have been fresher in years gone by, the fact that they were pushing a pretty relentless pace contributed enormously to their fatigue.

At the end of the 4th round, the combination of this fatigue and Shogun landing a few lethal shots in a row resulted in Vera falling face down on the mat. Despite the complimentary barrage of ground and pound, no further shots were needed, vera was out.

Lyoto Machida def. Ryan Bader via KO at 1:32 of Round 2.

The co-main event was a much simpler affair, as Lyoto Machida fought pretty much the perfect fight, avoiding the attacks of his opponent, hitting him with kicks and delivering counter punches. Throughout the 1st round, Bader was swinging at air as Machida circled away, and in the 2nd he finally got sloppy enough throwing a right hand that ‘The Dragon’ was able to stop him in his tracks with a counter-right that separated the former TUF winner from his senses.

To the business of title shots. I would certainly agree that Machida is deserving of the shot at Jon Jones as his performance was flawless and I think that he still ha the best chance of beating the seemingly invincible UFC champ. However, I still would expect Jones to beat Machida again (he is probably better suited to a drop to middleweight, but more on that another time), and if Dan Henderson can somehow find a way to take the title, the decision to pull the trigger on giving Machida the title shot, and not leaving room to line up a Hendo/Shogun remautch could cost the UFC millions of dollars

Joe Lauzon def. Jamie Varner via submission (triangle choke) at 2:44 of Round 3 – wins $50,000 sub-of-the-night bonus, both fighters win $50,000 fight-of-the-night bonus.

The deserved winners of the fotn bonus, Varner and Lauzon engaged in a back and forth war for the better part of 3 rounds. Jamie Varner looked to be hitting top form once again as he battered ‘JLau’ with a barrage of thunderous body punches and hooks to the head, though Lauzon seemed relatively unfazed by the attack, and he was able to survive until Varner apparently broke his hand at some point in the 2nd round.

After unfortunate turn, Varner’s punches were probably lacking a bit of the fizz that they previously had, and Lauzon was able to capitalise by firing back, putting the former WEC champ on his arse, and taking his back. The submission (in the gif below) was particularly impressive from Lauzon because it didn’t come from a sustained spell of dominance like he had in round 2. He initiated a scrable after being taken down, and was able to work his right leg over the shoulder during the process of a second take down to secure triangle position. A superb submission attack while he was essentially in mid-air.

Mike Swick def. DaMarques Johnson via KO at 1:20 of Round 2 -wins $50,000 KO-of-the-night-bonus.

What a return for Mike Swick, 30 months out and he wins the KO bonus after coming back from adversity against a tough opponent. DaMarques Johnson threatened in the 1st round, and kept Swick on his back for much of the 2nd half of the round. It seeemed as though he was really feeling the effects of having such a long time out of the cage. But then..

..Swick hit a nice knee-tap as a counter to a kick, and threw a punch mid-takedown that connected as Johnson’s head bounced back off the mat, making him go limp instantly.

And now for a few quick thoughts on the prelims

Nam Phan def. Cole Miller via split decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28).

A great little war that lived up to my loft expectations. Phan really deserved the win because of hus superior striking, with his left hooks to the head and body particularly effective weapons

Phil Davis vs. Wagner Prado was declared a no decision (doctor’s stoppage due to unintentional eyepoke).

An ugly finish to a fight which was a shame really. Fortunately they are scheduled to rematch at UFC on FX 5 in October

Rani Yahya def. Josh Grispi via submission (North-south choke) at 3:15 of Round 1.

Once on tap to contend for the UFc featherweight title, Grispi looks set to be bounced out of the promotion after entering into the ground game of one of the most talented grapplers at 145lbs. A risky move, and one that Rani Yahya took full advantage of.

Phil De Fries def. Oli Thompson via submission (rear naked choke) at 4:16 of Round 2.

A much needed win for BJJ specialist DeFries who was able to hurt Thompson on the feet before submitting him. Thompson will probably be bounced from the promotion after this, while the big man from Sunderland improves his UFC record to 2-1.

Manny Gamburyan def. Michihiro Omigawa via unanimous decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27).

‘Th Anvil secures himself another chance in the UFC, while Omigawa will probably get his walking papers. Not a bad fight, but probably the least explosive of the night.

John Moraga def. Ulysses Gomez via KO at 3:46 of Round 1.

Moraga showed that rare quality in the lighter weight divisions, heavy hands and legitimate KO power. Gomez didn’t get the chance to flex his grappling muscles as he was dispatched in brutal fashion inside the 1st frame. The fledgeling UFC 125 lb class has another prospect to watch out for.

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UFC 148 Preview: UFC stars make their predictions

Canada must be a pretty great place to be a MMA fan. Although you still have to pay for PPV events, all the other events are readily available on mainstream sports channels, and because the sport is so popular there’s a whole load of unbiased coverage that doesn’t just pander to Dana and the UFC (that’s an assumption mind, Canadians tell me if I’m wrong).

In this video from Sportsnet Canada, Nick Diaz, Carlos Condit, Georges St. Pierre, Roy Nelson, Mark Hominick, Mark Bocek, Mike Pierce, Chris Clements, John Alessio, Jason Miller, Cain Velasquez, Antonio Silva, Dominick Cruz, Urijah Faber, Chad Mendes all break down the fight, and the overall decision seems to be fairly evenly split. Many of the fighters seem to believe that the fight will be more or less a carbon copy of the first fight, with Chael keeping his arms and neck out of triangle/armbar territory, while other arguably more realistic (or Brazilian) individuals seem to think that it is safe to assume that Anderson will be fighting at full clip this time and will ice the ‘American Gangster’.

With that said, here’s a link to a list of Bloody Elbow’s judo chop series on Anderson Silva, the first of which shows exactly how Silva could be toppled for the first time in the UFC. However all the rest merely serve to demonstrate how overwhelmingly fantastic he is.

It’s just so exciting isn’t it?. 2 days to g0!

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UFC 143 recap

Carlos Condit defeats Nick Diaz via unanimous decision (48–47, 49–46, 49–46) to become the new UFC Interim Welterweight Champion.

The insane, whirlwind slug-fest that many people were expected between these fighters did not happen. Instead, rather refreshingly for Carlos Condit fans, ‘The Natural Born Killer’  stuck to a savvied game plan, avoiding the majority of Diaz’s boxing attack and repeatedly countering with leg-kicks and punches of his own. This was a very difficult fight to score, but looking at the statistics published by fightmetric, it appears that the right man won.

In my humble opinion, this was Diaz’s fight to win, and he failed to do so by refusing to adjust when Condit was outlanding him.The fifth round proved that Diaz had a significant advantage on the ground, but he refused to attempt to take the fight there any earlier. As for his ‘retirement’ after the fight, I cannot and do not want to see it actually happen. Diaz is one of the best and most exciting fighters in the world, and is handsomely rewarded for his efforts. Given the interest in this fight, the length of time before Condit may have to wait to fight GSP and the outrage from some observers at the result, I think that a rematch could be the best way to go for the UFC. It would be a completely different fight, as I doubt Condit could win in the same fashion, and it gives Diaz another shot to get the fight at the end of the year with GSP, which is BY FAR the most lucrative match up for the UFC to make in the near future.

Fabricio Werdum defeats Roy Nelson via unanimous decision (30–27, 30–27, 30–27).

Fabricio Werdum proved once and for all that Roy Nelson is not in the same league as the true elite fighters in the heavyweight division. He did show that he is possibly the toughest fighter in the world, as he took and absolute beating for three rounds against the Brazilian giant. When Werdum was not busy rearranging Nelson’s face with knees from the clinch, he was landing devastating leg-kicks from the outside. Nelson managed to land a few shots of his own but his output paled in comparison to Werdum’s

Nelson should not be put with any more top heavyweight fighters for the time being. He is ideal for the UFC’s fight cards on cable TV against fellow middle-of-the-pack heavyweights, as he is popular, and nearly always brings excitement with his fights. Fabricio Werdum can look forward to fighting another top 10 heavyweight (Frank Mir seems to be the popular choice), and continue on his road to  a rematch with Junior Dos Santos for the title.

Both fighters earned $65,000 fight of the night bonus.

Nelson’s tweeted the effect Werdum’s knees had on his face after the fight

Josh Koscheck defeats Mike Pierce via split decision (28–29, 29–28, 29–28).

I had Pierce winning the first and second rounds to win 29-28, and I’m not sure how the judges came to a different verdict. This is not the first time Pierce has come out of a fight losing a contentious decision, and he must increase his offensive output to really show judges that he is in fact getting the better of his opponents. Ultimately though, this result should not hurt him too much in the long term. Most people seemed to give him the decision, and he lost to a very good, and well known fighter.

This was not a terrible performance from Koscheck either, but it has along with his departure from the American Kickboxing Academy, raised doubts in my mind about how he will continue to compete with other fighters at the top of the welterweight division in the future. If Jake Ellenberger gets past Diego Sanchez next week (which he should) I could see him fighting Kos next, and that would be a great way for him to get a win to firmly establish himself as a contender. Koscheck would have all sorts of problems with his aggressive offensive output on the feet.

Renan Barão defeats Scott Jorgensen via unanimous decision (30–27, 30–27, 30–27).

A fairly comfortable win for Barão, who adjusted well in the fight to outbox, and then leg-kick Jorgensen for a clear decision win. Barão is surely set to be next in line for a Bantamweight title shot after the Dominick Cruz/Urijah Faber rubber match later in the year, but this fight did make me doubt his prospects against either fighter. In short, bantamweight fighters should not be getting tired unless they are going full speed for an entire fight. The way in which Barão slowed down by the third round would leave him in all sorts of trouble against either Cruz of Faber in the championship rounds, and I doubt he would have enough in his arsenal to take them out in the opening rounds. The Cruz/Faber fight will not take place until the summer, presumably allowing for Barão to have one more fight to work on his game, and prove that he might stand a chance against the top two fighters in the division.

Ed Herman defeats Clifford Starks via submission (rear-naked choke) at 1:43 of round 2.

To no-one’s surprise, the 12 fight UFC veteran dispatched of the newcomer without too much bother, save for some threatening right hands in the first round. Onwards and upwards for Herman, and back to the undercard for Starks.

On the undercard…

Dustin Poirier defeats Max Holloway via submission (mounted triangle armbar) at 3:23 of round 1.

Again, an established UFC veteran and future featherweight title contender defeated a UFC rookie. Poirier won the $65,000 submission of the night bonus.

Edwin Figueroa defeats Alex Caceres via split decision (28–27, 27–28, 28–27). Caceres was penalized two points for kicks to the groin.

Caceres was unfortunate to have two points deducted which cost him the fight. With that said, even with the deduction he should have got the decision as I thought he won every round.

Matt Brown defeats Chris Cope via TKO (punches) at 1:19 of round 2.

Another predictable result. Matt Brown is a good fighter, Chris Cope isn’t, and will go back to the regional scene to fight.

Matt Riddle defeats Henry Martinez via split decision (28–29, 29–28, 29–28).

Henry Martinez is a lightweight who came in on 10 days notice to fight Riddle who is a giant at 170 pounds, and should have been smashed. Instead Riddle decided that brawling was a good idea, and should have lost a decision. At least I won some money as a result. I’m interested to see how Martinez will fair at lightweight as he certainly seems to have a lot of heart, and a striking output that could cause some problems.

Rafael Natal defeats Michael Kuiper via unanimous decision (30–27, 30–27, 29–28).

Kuiper looks better suited to fighting at 170 pounds but put on a decent performance in his UFC début. Natal almost managed to throw the fight away as usual by getting tired and hit hard, but he did enough to survive and should stick around in the UFC for a little while yet.

Stephen Thompson defeats Dan Stittgen via KO (head kick) at 4:13 of round 1.

I’ve already covered this fight, but it’s definitely worth seeing again! Thompson won $65,000 for KO of the night.

UFC 143: Diaz vs. Condit Gambling Spotlight

Once again all odds are based on Paddypower.com odds, by far the best bookmakers for MMA betting in the UK

Underdog Value.

Mike Pierce is 15/8 to beat Josh Koscheck. As I mentioned in my preview, Pierce packs a hell of a lot of power, and Kos can’t defend strikes particularly well. Worth a look

Michael Kuiper is a 13/8 underdog against Rafael Natal, and has a decent chance of scoring an upset. Kuiper comes from the European scene where he has faced a host of sub-par opposition, and he is fighting in his UFC début. In contrast, Natal is now a veteran of three UFC fights where hie is 1-1-1. On closer inspection however, Natal’s only win is against Paul Bradley, who is not a UFC calibre fighter, and he was beaten by Rich Attonitio, a TUF veteran who is solid, but not spectacular. Natal also has a tendency to get tired very quickly. Kuiper has done what any promising fighter should have done, and convincingly beaten his opponents, so might be worth a punt.

Betting on other markets

Not much to go with here, though Nick Diaz to win by decision is  11/4, so might be worth your money

Absolutely DO NOT bet against

Matt Brown is inconsistent, but beats sub-par opposition without much hassle. Chris Cope is one of those fighters he should beat.

Ed Herman – As long as his knee holds out, and there is nothing to suggest it won’t, ‘Short Fuse’ should be able to take advantage of his superiority in most areas of the fight game, as well as a vast experience advantage to get the win.

It’s not a particularly easy card to call as far as methods of victory go. There are not too many upset picks to go for with too much confidence either. If you’re going to win money on an underdog it’s going to have to be a pretty sexy pick. A couple of small accumulators or cover-all bets based around Fabricio Werdum, Dustin Poirier, Matthew Riddle, Matt Brown and Stephen Thompson would be my recommendation, with the addition of Nick Diaz, Renan Barao and Edwin Figueroa if you feel inclined.

UFC 143: Diaz vs. Condit Main Card Preview

Interim Welterweight Title: Nick Diaz vs. Carlos ‘The Natural Born Killer’ Condit

Welterweight champion Georges St. Pierre’s injury woes could actually turn out be a blessing for UFC fans, as arguably the most exciting match-up North of the lightweight division has been put together for UFC 143’s main event. Two of the most well rounded fighters in the sport will lock horns for 5 rounds for a taste of UFC gold, and a potential fight with GSP.

What makes the fight so interesting are the many strengths, and weaknesses each fighter has, opening the door for several different avenues of victory for each fighter.

Nick Diaz possesses outstanding jiu-jitsu, and would have an advantage on the mat against almost every single welterweight in the world, the only possible exceptions being team-mate Jake Shields, and GSP. However, in recent years, he has fallen in love with his striking, and only seems willing to use his jiu-jitsu for defensive purposes on the feet (i.e reaching for a kimura when his back is taken) or if he is taken down (often resulting in an easy submission). Diaz’s boxing has been the downfall of many fighters; with constant pressure wearing his opponents down, and leaving them open to series of combinations and vicious hooks to the body. Where Diaz’s boxing strategy lets him down is his flat footed stance and flimsy guard. If he faces a competent striker, or even a fighter with a sound game plan, he is wide open to take shots, particularly leg kicks.

Condit has vicious striking skills, and is able to mix up punches, elbows, kicks and knees, culminating in a fair few knockouts over the course of his career. He is pretty wild which allows him to generate some ridiculous power, but leaves him open to counter strikes and takedowns. Fortunately, Condit is very durable, like Diaz. He survived an absolute onslaught in the first round against Jake Ellenberger to come back and win, and barely flinched when he was trading punches with Dan Hardy before he knocked him out. If he’s taken down, he has a good guard game that could allow him to survive, though he is unlikely to be able to sweep or submit a grappler of Diaz’s calibre.

The one unquantifiable factor in this fight is whether Diaz comes in and fights in a way that will actually help him win. In the past, he has been outfought against the likes of ‘Mach’ Sakurai and ‘Cyborg’ Santos. Two vastly inferior opponents, who he overcame the minute they decided to try and compete with him on the ground It is also worth remembering that Diaz probably had far more trouble than he should have with blown-up lightweight KJ Noons.

Despite this, I expect Diaz to be able to establish his boxing after a round or two of troubling striking offence from Condit to emerge with the title via a close decision.

Welterweight: Josh Koscheck vs. Mike Pierce

Josh Koscheck is one of the true elite of the welterweight division. He is a powerhouse wrestler, with devastating knockout power. Mike Pierce is, in my opinion perhaps the most underrated fighter in the UFC. His wins do not include many ‘names’, but he had beaten everyone he is fought in the promotion convincingly, with the exception of long-time divisional no.2 Jon Fitch (who he gave a scare to in the third round), and Johny Hendricks, who earned the win via a debatable decision.

Despite solid wrestling, Pierce should not be able to give Koscheck too many problems pursuing a takedown; his boxing is where he may be able to find success. Koscheck’s striking defence is suspect at best, He has found himself laid flat out on the mat by Paulo Thiago a couple of years ago after failing to defend himself when throwing overhand rights. Then, last year he looked shaky when Matt Hughes was throwing at his head, despite Hughes’ robotic approach to punching. Pierce packs a lot of power, and if he lands flush on Koscheck’s chin, I could see him getting the finish that he could not get over Jon Fitch when he had him hurt.

With that said, I think Koscheck will be able to take Pierce to the mat a few times, and once he is there, Pierce will struggle to get back to his feet due to a limited guard game. With that, he should be able to ride out a decision victory. Though I would not blink an eye if the decision goes the other way, or pierce can land a knockout blow.

Heavyweight: Fabricio ‘Vai Cavalo’ Werdum vs. Roy ‘Big Country’ Nelson

Fabricio Werdum washed out of the UFC a few years after he turned up fat to fight Junior Dos Santos and got absolutely blitzed in the first round. Now, after a successful run in Strikeforce where he became the first man to legitimately defeat Fedor Emelianenko he’s back, and appears to pose a legitimate threat to the UFC’s heavyweight elite. His first task is to overcome the considerable challenge posed by Roy Nelson.

Nelson’s biggest chance in this fight is to pile the pressure on Werdum early, in much the same manner as he did in knocking out Stephan Struve. However, if he cannot get the finishing blow within the first round, I believe Werdum will be able to establish a sustained boxing attack, succeeding based on his reach advantage. Various individuals have been making a lot of Werdum out striking Alistair Overeem, and the significance of this is over-exaggerated. Overeem was not affected by many of Werdum’s strikes and Nelson will not be such a static target. With that said, I think Werdum can find success on the feet, and would be well served by looking for opportunities to clinch with Nelson and wear him out. This should be able to tire Nelson out and open up the chance for Werdum to look for a late submission. As good as Nelson’s grappling is he should not be a match for the larger Werdum, especially if he has started to tire late on. I predict a wide decision or late submission for Werdum.

Bantamweight: Renan ‘Barão’ Pegado vs. Scott ‘Young Guns’ Jorgensen

Renan ‘Barão’ is riding an incredible 17 (seventeen!) fight winning streak, and finally broke out late last year after his win over scrappy Brit Brad Pickett in Birmingham. He caught the eye thanks to his relentlessly violent assault, and first round submission of a very tough fighter. Scott Jorgensen is a former bantamweight title contender whose only loss in his last eight fights was in that title fight with bantamweight champion Dominick Cruz.

Barão’s winning streak is deceptive, as most of his fights took place in Brazil where he was fighting less than world-class opposition. What cannot be disputed is his talent and ferocity. As touch as Jorgensen is, he shouldn’t be able to stand up to the volume of power strikes thrown at him, and succumb to a TKO or submission within the first two rounds

Middleweight: Ed ‘Short Fuse’ Herman vs. Clifford Starks

I won’t pretend that I’m an expert on Clifford Starks after one underwhelming UFC fight, but I can’t see him defeating Ed Herman based on his record, and the knowledge that Herman is tough, experienced in the UFC, and in possession of a decent all-round skill set. Since coming back from a horrific knee injury suffered in the fight against Aaron Simpson, Herman knocked out a game (though limited Tim Credeur, and scored an upset heel-hook win over Kyle Noke. His previous losses were a razor-thin (and I cannot emphasise razor enough) decision against Alan Belcher, and as submission defeat to jiu-jitsu demigod Damien Maia.

Herman has the striking to handle Starks, and the grappling acumen to cause him all sorts of problems if he resorts to his wrestling base. Herman should get this via submission, possibly in the second round.