In lieu of a proper recap, here’s the best knockouts from the weekend’s fight card
Tim Boetsch’s INCREDIBLE come-from-behind KO of Yushin Okami
Anthony Pettis’ blowout of Joe Lauzon
And Issei Tamura’s opening bout KO of Tiequan Zhang
Pettis won the $65,0000 for KO of the night, but fair play to all these chaps (and Mark Hunt) for some truly spectacular, and surprising KOs during UFC 144
Another class fan-made promo for UFC 144 featuring Frankie Edgar as Rocky.
As usual I’ll be taking all odds from Paddy Power, the best site in the UK for betting on MMA.
All odds are correct at time of writing.
A quick look at how I did for the last event, UFC on Fuel: Sanchez vs. Ellenberger (badly). I had advised caution when thinking about betting on the Struve/Herman, and Simpson/Markes fights, but I failed to heed my own advice and cost myself over £100 in winnings.
£10 on Roberts (void), Dillashaw, Miocic, Brookins – returns £24.07
£2 on Simpson, Salas, Simpson, Roberts (void), Brookins, Ellenberger, Dillashaw, Miocic, Menjivar – loss
£10 on Ellenberger on points, Dillashaw on points, Simpson on points – loss
£5 on Miocic by KO, Herman by KO – loss
Total loss £2.93
Now on to this weekend
Underdog value
Joe Lauzon – I expect Anthony Pettis to win this fight, but Joe Lauzon has won as an underdog before, most notably in his UFC début against lightweight legend Jens Pulver, and last time out against Melvin Guillard, who looked like he was on an unstoppable run to the title. Lauzon’s best attribute is his attack from top-control, and if he can gain dominant position he might have a chance. Pettis is hard to hold down, and even harder to submit, but considering the odds of 15/8 it might be worth a look.
Vaughn Lee – When I first saw this match-up between Norifumi ‘Kid’ Yamamoto and unknown British bantamweight Vaughn Lee, my mind immediately cast itself back to Kid’s fight with FedericoLopez in DREAM. Lopez had a 4-2 record from the U.S. regional circuit and was on a 2 fight losing streak. The fight was made to guarantee the Japanese superstar a win after he’d gone 2 fights and over 2 and a half years without tasting victory. Lee is 11-7 with only one fight in the UFC, and one loss. However, his record may be slightly misleading seeing as three of his losses were in his first three fights.
At this point ‘Kid’ Yamamoto seems to be out of love with MMA. Several sources indicate that he does not train as hard as he should at his own Krazy-Bee gym, and he is surrounded by ‘yes men’ in his camp that don’t push him hard enough. One can excuse a loss to Demitrious Johnson, as no-one was quite sure about how good ‘Mighty Mouse’ was at that point, but ‘Kid’ was an overwhelming favourite against Darren Uyenoyama, and he blew that too.
‘Kid’ has claimed he has dealt with injuries that affected him in his previous fights, and if that is the case he should whip Lee all over the octagon, so I wouldn’t advise piling too much money money on the underdog seeing as he is only 11/5. He could be part of a pretty sexy accumulator though.
Eiji Mitsuoka – For similar reasons to the Kid fight, don’t count out Mitsuoka. He is a featherweight facing off against a huge lightweight, and heavy favourite in Gomi. However, Gomi is a shadow of the fighter he was when many considered hi one of the bet pound-for-pound fighters in the world back in the PRIDE days. I am still tempted to back Gomi, but I am told that Mitsuoka is a good featherweight, and could have the tools to upset ‘The Fireball Kid’ if he is not on point. At 6/4 he’d be worth putting in a double
Yoshihiro Akiyama – Will Akiyama finally find success at 170 pounds? If he can stop Shield’s takedown and hit him har early, we could have an upset on our hands. At 15/5 or 8/1 by knockout a speculative bet could earn big rewards.
Other Markets
Decisions
Edgar to beat Henderson at 7/5 – Both fighters are apparently impossible to hold down and submit, or be knocked out if previous fights are anything to go by.
Oakmi to beat Boetsch at 4/7 – Okami is a grinder, and only tends to finish opponents if he completely outclasses them. Boetsch is solid and should be tricky to finish.
Mizugaki to beat Cariaso at 5/6 – Both fighters have gone the distance in all but one of their fights under the Zuffa banner thus far. I can’t see that changing
Pettis to beat Lauzon at 21/10 – Joe Lauzon has never gone the distance in a fight, but I can’t see either men finishing the fight thank’s to each fighter’s durability and submission defence.
Other worthwhile options
Rampage to KO Bader at 17/10
Kongo to KO Hunt at 5/4, or decision at11/5
Hatsu Hioki to submit Palazewski is 6/1! Crazy odds for such a talented grappler. Playing it safer, if you think ‘Bartimus’ can survive and reach a decision odds are 5/4
DO NOT bet against…
Yushin Okami – The Japanese stand out may have had a tough fight in Rio last August as he was knocked out in the second round, but he was facing the best fighter of all time. Anderson Silva appeared to be toying with Okami, and looked to be able to finish him whenever he wanted, but the same can be said for most of The Spider’s other opponents, including light-heavyweight Forrest Griffin. Okami is exactly the kind of opponent that forced Tim Boetsch to move down in weight. Someone who can out-muscle him and push him against the fence and take him down. Okami is pretty close to light-heavyweight size and should banish many of the memories of his shot at the title on Saturday night. Okami is completely justified as a 2/7 favourite.
My Picks
Once again, its a card where you’re probably going to find most value betting on the favourites in an accumulator of sorts, though I would suggest caution with Shields and Gomi. Despite their value as underdogs I still expect Lee and Lauzon to be defeated.
Accumulator of Hioki, Mizugaki, Okami, Kongo, Rampage, Edgar
Pettis, Mizugaki, Okami and Edgar on points
Hioki by submission
Akiyama by KO
and probably a couple more 4/5 fight accumulators on favourites, let’s see how much I get paid tomorrow.
[UPDATE] I’ve backed both Kongo and Rampage to win by KO. God knows what Rampage missing weight will mean for his performance, and I’m fairly sure Hunt has a chance of knocking out Kongo, but 6/1 odds isn’t bad.
Fuck you mmafighting.com, why do your embed codes not work for videos.
Anyway here is the link to this video instead of the actual video. It’s a wonderfully candid piece from the excellent Ariel Helwani with one of the most mercurial fighters in MMA
No Primetime this time around for the UFC, but there is the old style Countdown show, featuring 4 of the 7 main card fights
IF nothing else, its a great chance to catch up with highlights of the two Edgar vs. Maynard fights from last year, which are two of the best ever.
Its also nice to have some new fighters featured in the Countdown show. When big names like Rahsad, GSP, Frank Mir et al are endlessly recycled over and over these shows get stale. For the first time fans get an insight into Benson Henderson’s formative years (and Korean heritage, which I had no idea about), which proves to be quite interesting.
In a trademark video tirade, UFC president Dana White react’s to Floyd Mayweather’s accusations of racism towards black NBA basketballers.
I have reservations when Dana shoots his mouth off on certain issues, such as media bias or fan’s concerns. However, I find rants directed at other promoters, or the boxing world as the is case here, hilarious and brilliant.
Part 2 of my predictions for the main card of the stacked UFC 144 that takes place 3am GMT Saturday night, live from Saitama Super Arena in Japan on ESPN.
This preview features the final three fights on the broadcast including the main-event for the lightweight title. Preliminary bouts will be shown on facebook and UFC.tv
UFC lightweight championship: Frankie Edgar vs. Benson Henderson
Before I start discussing what the outcome of this fight might be, it is worth talking about what an amazing fight this promises to be between two of the UFC’s all-action stars.
Last year, Frankie Edgar took part in two of the best fights I have ever seen against Gray Maynard. In January,he entered as an underdog and was beaten all over the octagon in round 1, but survived and demonstrated a tremendous amount of heart and determination to launch a comeback that saw him gain a draw. In the rubber-match Edgar again survived a drubbing in the first round, and again mounted an incredible comeback, this time knocking Maynard out in the fourth round. Benson ‘don’t call me Ben’ Henderson beat up Mark Boceck, unsealed an unbelievable amount of violence on top-contender Jim Miller, and then took part in another fight of the year candidate against Clay Guida. He has also been involved in a 5 round FOTY winner against Donald Cerrone, and a 5 round FOTY contender against Anthony Pettis in the WEC.
Fights that are hyped as being potentially FOTY candidates often fail to live up to the expectation, but I truly expect these two fighters to put on one hell of a show. Ben Henderson brings a relentless pace to each of his fights, and has the perfect foil in Edger, who will try and fend off a powerful wrestling and striking attack with his superb boxing, and takedowns of his own.
Henderson is the bigger fighter, and has managed to take down all of his previous opponents, which include stellar wrestlers in Guida and Miller. He may be able to take Edgar down, but could be looking at the prospect of an opponent who will get to his feet quickly, or shrug off the takedown altogether. Gray Maynard was a bigger, stronger wrestler, but Edgar largely managed to fend of his grappling offence, and even get a couple of slams on him.
In the striking department there is no doubt who has the advantage. Henderson packs some serious power, but is no where near the same level of technical boxer as Edgar. Edgar can rip off multiple punch combinations and land precision shots on his opponent’s chin. He also packs enough versatility with kicks to create a package that is very appealing to judges, if not the most damaging offence. He does occasionally pack enough power to finish his opponents, as he showed in his last fight. I do not expect Edgar to finish Henderson though. He is incredibly resilient, and you only need to look at how he survived Anthony Pettis’ ‘showtime kick’ to see his ability to take massive shots and keep fighting
Imagining Henderson’s power versus the diminutive Edgar I can easily picture an absolute beating in much the same vein as the the Jim Miller fight from last year. However, if the last two years have taught me anything, it is to never count Frank Edgar out. He beat BJ Penn twice, and got the better of Gray Maynard over the course of two fights despite overwhelming odds. I think Edgar will be able to put together enough combinations to out-point Henderson. He should be able to hit Henderson, and be quick enough to counter or slip his punches and circle away, all while avoiding the takedown for a unanimous decision victory.
Light-heavyweight: Quinton ‘Rampage Jackson vs. Ryan Bader
‘Rampage’ returns to the scene of many of his most famous victories, and the country that he most adores in search of a victory that he hopes will put him back in the hunt for a UFC title-shot. Many observers are hoping that a return to Japan will give Rampage the motivation he needs to recapture his heavy hitting, slam happy best. His opponent is Ryan Bader, who recently halted his dangerous slide into UFC obscurity by knocking out Jason Brilz after a pair of embarrassing losses to Jon Jones and Tito Ortiz.
Some observers would argue that Rampage was at his best when he was fighting in Japan for Pride, though I would tend to disagree. He was certainly exciting in Japan, who can forget the powerbomb knockout of Ricardo Arona, but he was far from the complete package. It was when Rampage trained with Juanito Ibarra in his early UFC days, capturing and defending the title against Chuck Liddell and Dan Henderson respectively with a combination of crisp boxing, powerhouse wrestling and strong cardio where he was at is best. While Rampage seems to have regained the gas tank that helped made him so formidable in 2007, he continued to be little more than a one-dimensional boxer since he lost his title at UFC 86. He has struggled against Kieth Jardine, was completely outclassed but Rashad Evans, barely emerged with decision victory against Lyoto Machida, failed to finish a very limited Matt Hammil, and was pulverised by Jon Jones. Jackson retains the ability to knock hi opponents out, but his opponents can see that is all he is planning to do. He leaves himself open to leg kicks, and is not the force of takedown defence he once was.
However, I still think he should have enough to deal with Bader. The former all-american wrestler was soundly beaten by Jones as well, but that was to be expected. His defeat to Tito Ortiz was plain embarrassing, as he showed a suspect chin, and became victim for Ortiz’s only win in the last six years. His victory against Jason Brilz did not convince me, as Jason Brilz had recently been knocked out in 21 seconds by ageing veteran VLadimir Matyshenko, and has spoken of his lack of commitment to the sport in the past. Bader’s standup is slow and telegraphed, and he tends to visibly wear himself out by the third round. Despite his wrestling credentials I doubt he has the dynamism to take Rampage down either.
Ultimately, I expect Rampage to be able to connect with Bader’s jaw, and knock him out prompting frenzied clamis that Rampage is ‘back’ and in the title picture once again.
Heavyweight: Mark Hunt vs. Cheick Kongo
Two heavy hitters face off in a fight where remarkably, the winner will emerge with their third consecutive victory in the UFC.
Hunt arrived in the UFC because they ‘owed him fights’ from his Pride contract, despite Pride having ceased operations over 3 years previously. In his first fight he was embarrassingly submitted by Sean McCorkle, and was assumed to have had his last fight for the promotion. However, he was invited back and knocked out Chris Tuscherer and won a decision against Ben Rothwell. Kongo miraculously came back from the brink of defeat to KO Pat Barry, and then won a decision against Matt Mitrione to quash memories of a lacklustre draw with Travis Browne in London at UFC 120.
This fight should come down to whether Kongo can get Hunt to the mat. Although he is renowned as a striker, Kongo has had the most success when he can get a double-leg, and begin delivering a vicious assault of punches and elbows to his opponents. While he is a capable kickboxer, he probably won’t be able to dispatch Hunt on the feet. Quite apart from possessing one of the strongest chins in MMA and K-1 history, Hunt is a former K-1 champion. While he has lost a great deal of speed, one accurate punch to Kongo’s head could leave the Frenchman in a world of trouble, as he is not the kind of fighter to brush of powerful shots easily.
I expect Kongo will be able to get Hunt to the mat eventually. I reckon this won’t happen straight away, as Hunt is a big man, and difficult to move. Once down, Hunt will lack the skill to get to his feet or sweep the colossal Frenchman and will lose via a late TKO or unanimous decision
Part 1 of my predictions for the main card of a stacked UFC 144 that takes place 3am GMT Saturday night, live from Saitama Super Arena in Japan, live on ESPN
This preview features the first four fights on the broadcast. Preliminary bouts will be shown on facebook and UFC.tv
Welterweight: Yoshihiro Akiyama vs. Jake Shields
Two fighters who arrived into the UFC with enormous levels of hype now find themselves staring into the abyss and potential release from the promotion if they cannot find a way to win on Saturday night.
Akiyama has been outmatched recently at middleweight, with no hope of a lower-key match-up due to his massive salary. For his début at middleweight he will face a top-ten ranked opponent once again in the form of Jake Shields. Shields was predictably beaten by GSP, and then KOd by Jake Ellenberger last time out, though who can say what Shield’s father’s death had to do with that performance.
Akiyama will have the advantage on the feet, and Shields has far superior jiu-jitsu. The x-factor in this fight will be whether Shields can take Akiyama down. The Japanese superstar has excellent judo, and may be able to fend off takedowns from a fighter who admittedly does not have natural wrestling ability.
An interesting dynamic of this fight will be what effect the new cut to 170 pounds will have on Akiyama. It appears that he has performed practice cuts in the past few months, though when it comes to fight-night, preparation of that nature can only take a fighter so far. Akiyama has fallen victim to his own poor cardio in the past, though Shields is not exactly a cardio machine either.
I guess Shields will win the fight, probably by decision, though if Akiyama can start landing on him early we could be in for an interesting ride.
Middlewight: Yushin Okami vs. Tim Boetsch
Another fighter with an embarrassing loss in the recent past, this will be Yushin Okami’s first fight since being KOd by Anderson Silva in Brazil in August. As much as that was a bad night for the Japanese middleweight contender, he will not be facing fighters of that calibre every time out, and should re-establish himself as one of the best fighters at 185 pounds with a win over Tim Boetsch.
Okami is a huge middleweight, and has a size advantage over almost everyone in the division. He uses his size effectively by wearing his opponents down with clinch work, and has complemented this with vastly improved striking over the last year or two. Boetsch is another big, strong 185 pounder, who has won two straight since his move down from light-heavyweight. Boetch demonstrated in his last fight against Nick Ring, that he his capable of literally throwing his opponents around, but should find Okami a far different prospect.
I expect Okami to get back to winning ways by unanimous decision, utilising the clinch to push Boetch up against the fence or take him down, and landing strikes from those positions.
Lightweight: Anthony Pettis vs. Joe Lauzon
This has a good chance of rivalling the main event as fight of the night. both fighters bring aggressive striking and grappling and could end up within touching distance of a title shot if they can get a victory on Saturday.
Anthony Pettis was cautious in his approach in his last fight thanks to the threat of Jeremy Stevens KO power, though I reckon he could attempt unleash his offence a bit more in this fight. Lauzon is far from an incapable kickboxer, and still brings some considerable power to the cage, but he does not quite have the same kind of one-shot-kill power that Stevens does. Pettis has the ability to mix up his strikes as well as anyone at 155 pounds, and is capable of pulling some things off that no-one else can. Who can forget the ‘showtime kick’ that he floored Benson Henderson with in their WEC title fight.
Pettis also has decent jiu-jitsu, but probably won’t be able to find a submission against the BJJ purple belt. Lauzon’s best chance has to be taking Pettis down, and establishing dominant position, as he is very dangerous there and is capable of ripping off some punishing ground and pound or a quick submission. He will face a test getting this done though, as Pettis’ takedown defence has improved enormously since the early part of his WEC tenure, and had a difficult guard to pass, as well as being nigh on impossible to submit.
Pettis should control the fight in the stand-up department and survive some scares as Lauzon attempts to put him on his back, to emerge with a decision victory, and take another step back into the crowded lightweight title picture.
Featherweight: Hatsu Hioki vs. Bart Paleszewski
The main card kicks off with a bout that could decide the next contender for José Aldo’s featherweight crown. Japanese sensation Hioki promised much when he came stateside after an impressive run in Sengoku Raiden Championship, but underwhelmed in a narrow decision win over George Roop. Paleszewski is coming off an impressive featherweight début at UFC 137 where he knocked out Tyson Griffin for a stunning upset.
Despite failing to live up to expectations in his first UFC fight, I still think Hioki is one of the best featherweights in the world. Unlike many Japanese fighters, he fights at the weight class that is completely appropriate for him, taking advantage of his size. He even had a knack of being able to get takedowns to implement his fantastic top-game, despite his lack of wrestling pedigree. Once Hioki gets his opponent to the mat, they are in for a rough night, one only needs to look at his five round domination of Marlon Sandro last New Year to see this.
It was a shock that Paleszewski defeated Tyson Griffin. He looked limited at lightweight in the WEC, with losses against less than fantastic opponents, along with a dubious split decision win over Anthony Pettis, and a submission win grasped from the jaws of defeat. That said, perhaps featherweight is where he belongs. Even at lightweight he packed a great deal of power in his punches, and he is never out of a fight. However, if Hioki manages to take him down, don’t expect any submissions from the bottom. Hioki’s control of an opponent from top-position is second to none at 145 pounds.
I’m going to assume that Hioki’s tentative performance in his octagon bow was down to a combination of nerves and an adjustment from training in Japan, to fighting in America. Fighting on home soil in his homeland should see him find form, and overwhelm Paleszewski with a suffocating grappling attack, and eventual submission victory. In addition, the win should be efficient and impressive enough to line him up as José Aldo’s next challenger/victim.
This weekend sees the UFc take a trip to Japan for the first time since 2000 for a bumper card with a stacked 4 hour main card from the Saitama Super Arena
This extended preview features the two fights at the top of the card. Quinton ‘Rampage’ Jackson takes on Ryan Bader in a battle for light-heavyweight relevance and in the main event, champion Frankie Edgar defends his belt against former WEC champion Benson Henderson. This main event could well end up being a contender for fight of the year considering the quality of Edgar’s two wars with Gray Maynard last year, as well as Henderson’s continuous FOTY candidate fights, including 5 round wars with Donald Cerrone and Anthony Pettis, as well as his fights with Jim Miller and Clay Guida.
ALso, here’s the Dana White approved fan-made anime-style hype video for the event by UFCStannFan1, which is awesome.
A particularly gruesome injury occurred this past weekend in at Fight Lab 20: MMA on the rise in the U.S.
Regional MMA is well known for presenting some pretty crazy circumstances, from spectacular knockouts and submissions, UFC veterans getting embarrassed, or questionable promotional decisions, but this is the strangest I have seen in some time.
At about of this video Shane Tyners is stuck underneath Kenneth Crowder and taking some ground and pound in the form of punches and elbows. One particular elbow connects cleanly on the side of Tyner’s head, and a short while later, the fight is stopped to check on some excessive bleeding. As it turns out, the bleeding is because half the bloke’s ear has come off. Ouch.
Fair play to Tyner mind, he continues to fight after everything has been investigated. I’m pretty sure I wouldn’t.
Here’s the full video. the incident takes place at around 15:58. It’s worth a watch for the commentator’s reaction
Triangle Choke MMA 