After what seems like an absolute eternity, the UFC is finally back with its second UFC on FUEL TV fight card tonight. As usual with a cable TV event, the UFC’s biggest names are absent, but the quality of the match ups-on tap more than makes up for the relative lack of star-power.
Headlining the event in his native Sweden will be rising star Alexander Gustafsson, and he takes on Brazilian Thiago Silva. The co-main event of this packed 6 fight main card is a middleweight match-up between ‘All-American’ Brian Stann and fantastically bearded Italian Alessio Sakara. As usual, I’ll be breaking down the fights on the main card in this post, and looking at some gambling opportunities a little later on.
Bantamweights – Damacio Page vs. Brad Pickett
British favourite Brad Pickett will be looking to rebound from a disappointing loss to Renan Barão in Birmingham last year, and I think he will manage that against ‘The Angel of Death’ Damacio Page. Pickett’s undoing in his last fight was his decision to trade with an opponent who packed a considerable amount more power than him. He was caught early and choked out. That is not to say that Pickett is not skilled on the feet. When he can move inside and exchange he has a good left-hook/uppercut and can really give opponents trouble, even if he does not have the same brain-melting power as other fighters.
Pickett will have to beware Page’s own striking as he does possess some vicious power. Who could forget his frankly frightening KO of Marcus Galvao in WEC? I think Pickett will be smart enough to stay away from Page’s power early on, and capitalise when Page fades after that. He should be able to use his boxing to score points and set up takedowns, where he can exercise his vastly superior grappling game and ride out a unanimous decision win. I think a submission from Pickett is possible, but I can’t imagine he will be in a position to take advantage of the kind of submissions that Page has seemed susceptible to in the past. I doubt Pickett will light him up with punches to the extent he’ll shoot in and get caught in a guillotine.
I’m hoping if this is the case that Page will get another chance in the UFC. He had a good run in the WEC, but has fallen on hard times recently due to a combination of tough opponents and a series of unfortunate spells on the sidelines. He is never in boring fights and would be great to have around.
Welterweights – DaMarques Johnson vs. John Maguire
Another Brit on the card, John Maguire is coming off a victorious UFC debut where he won via unanimous decision against fellow-Brit Justin Edwards. He faces a step up in competition tomorrow against DaMarques Johnson.
Johnson is becoming a very competent mid-level gatekeeper for the UFC’s welterweight division. He absolutely stomps fighters that he really should beat (as his KO of Clay Harvison showed).
The question is whether Maguire is one of those inferior fighters. He is a slight favourite, and that is likely thanks to his excellent grappling chops and Johnson’s porous submission defence. This should go one of two ways, Johnson could rough up Maguire on the feet, and Johnson has shown an inclination for finishing opponents once he has them hurt. On the other hand or Maguire could completely control Johnson if he gets him to the mat, riding out a decision or getting a sneaky sub.
Featherweights – Diego Nunes vs. Dennis Siver
The betting lines show Nunes as a favourite in this fight, though my gut reaction was to favour Dennis Siver in his featherweight debut.
Both fighters excel at kicking in different ways though Siver is probably the superior boxer. I would also expect Siver to be able to have his way with Nunes if he decides to grapple thanks to a size advantage left over from dropping to a lower weight class. Nunes undoubtedly has superior the jiu jitsu, but I don’t think he will be strong or slick enough to trouble Siver with submissions. I also think Nunes with be right there to be hit with counter shots from Siver if he starts firing with the same relentless enthusiasm that he often does.
On the other hand, I don’t think that it is beyond the realms of possibility that Nunes could constantly throw strikes at Siver and eke out a decision win. Siver does not handle constant pressure too well, and if he is forced to constantly back up he could be undone. Also, Nunes has never been stopped, so it is unlikely that Siver will be able to land one punch or kick to switch Nunes’ lights out. Also, Nunes tends to start fast in fights, coming out all-guns-blazing, and he could feasibly catch Siver cold and test his chin, which is not exactly the sturdiest in the world.
Breaking down the fight, I still favour Siver. Though he may not be able to land one of his patented spinning-back-kicks against the active Nunes, he should be able to land enough over the course of three rounds to win a unanimous decision. If his weight cut goes according to plan, he should probably take over late-on, as Nunes should tire out if he is forced to carry Siver’s weight at any point during the fight.
Welterweights – Siyar Bahadurzada vs. Paulo Thiago
This fight is very much the sleeper fight on the card. UFC veteran Paulo Thiago may be lacking in recent high profile UFC wins, and Siyar Bahadurzada may be an unknown quantity for many UFC fans, but they both bring a degree of ferocity to the cage that could very well result in a fight of the night.
I am by no means the first person to state this, but the Afghan Bahadurzada is one hell of a violent fighter, bringing back memories of the Chute Boxe team’s style in the mid-late 2000s. He seems to like to brawl and he will most likely charge straight out of the blocks looking for a finish. His record suggests that he finds success with this strategy. Despite fighting outside the U.S, he has faced some decent opposition in the last few years, and only lost twice since 2005 against two top middleweights Jorge Santiago and Kazuo Misaki.
Paulo Thiago comes into this fight having snapped a 2 fight losing streak in what was his only fight of last year, a unanimous decision win over David Mitchell. Thiago does not tend to brawl to quite the same extent as Bahadurzada, but he does get caught up in exchanges with many of his opponents despite his bread and butter being his jiu jitsu. Thiago is far from incapable on the feet though, and he has the ability to throw hooks and uppercuts with a huge amount of power with his punches thanks the torque generated from some liberal hip movement.
Thiago’s greatest chance of success will be to implement his outstanding jiu jitsu game though. If he can prevent himself from getting too caught up in a fire-fight with Bahadurzada he should be able to secure positional dominance and possibly even emerge with a submission. Whether that happens early, or towards the end of the third round, there should be a substantial amount of action as each man tries to take the other’s head off between the opening bell and then.
Middleweights – Alessio Sakara vs. Brian Stann
There is not too much to be said for how this should unfold. Both of these men are strikers and will be looking for the knockout. Brian Stann punches very, very hard, and Alessio Sakara has a weak chin, so I have no doubt in my mind that Stann will win via KO, possibly in the first round. Sakara has historically failed when facing big punchers. Chris Leben, Drew McFedries and Huston Alexander have all knocked the Italian out, and Brian Stann is a better fighter in a similar mould to all of them. In addition, he will be cornered by Greg Jackson and should have a foolproof game-plan to prevail.
I don’t think that Sakara is completely helpless in this fight however. He is a decent striker, he hits hard and he could find some success if Stann was to abandon his game plan and get a bit wild. However I find that unlikely and it could be argued that Sakara’s striking prowess is a little overrated. His standout KO wins are against sub-par opposition like Joe Vedepo, James Lee and MMA punch-line James Irvin. Stann should win this via 1st round KO.
Light-heavyweights – Alexander Gustafsson vs. Thiago Silva
Many observers have been hyping this as a bit of a squash match for Gustafsson, and while I think he is a deserved favourite, Thiago Silva will be no pushover.
Gustafsson has a huge reach, and packs some awesome power in his punches. He certainly has the ability to move in quickly from the outside and hurt Silva with combinations, especially early on as Silva has not proved to be the quickest starter. Gustafsson also has a killer instinct that usually allows him to finish opponents quickly and mercilessly as soon as they start to show signs that he has hurt them. He has also achieved a few finished by submission thanks to a decent grappling game and his long limbs.
All of this would lead me to strongly favour Gustafsson over any other non-top-10 light-heavyweight, but Silva is the exception. Thanks to a series of injury problems and suspensions this will only be Silva’s 4th fight in 3 and a half years so he has not got the cage time and exposure to become a recognised force in the division, but he has shown what he is capable of when he has stepped into the Octagon. Silva has good boxing technique, and while he is not as quick as Gustafsson, it only takes one punch for him to swing the fight his way. He absolutely melted Keith Jardine with a left-hook, and so very nearly snatched victory from Rashad Evans right at the death with a well placed hook, despite being out of gas and struggling with a back injury.
Instances lie this suggest that Silva is primarily a striker, and while the stand-up game seems to be where he prefers to earn his bread, his ground game is probably even more dangerous. He is a bjj black belt and has an absolutely suffocating top game. Once he gets on top of his opponent he maintains control almost effortlessly, and has a savage ground-and-pound attack to compliment his positional dominance. Expect the Swede to be in a world of trouble if Silva can get on top and start working towards full-mount.
Finally I would never count Silva out because of his unwavering will to win. This is a man who ran away from home at 13 because of an abusive father, and often had to choose between training and eating when he came off the streets of Sao Paulo to begin his MMA education. His thoughts on the fight, for me, perfectly sum up another reason why he is so dangerous.
“My prediction is that I will fight hard like a true warrior. Everybody knows my style. When I step in the Octagon, I go to kill or die, and I will do the same on April 14th, and I will be ten times more aggressive because this fight is very important for me.”
I’m having a tough time calling this fight. I would lean slightly towards Gustafsson, though as I’m sure I’ve made clear, Silva is not the kind of fighter to be written off.
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